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Jefferson - Economic Uncertainty and the Evolution of Monetary Policymaking

In this speech, Philip Jefferson discusses the importance of understanding uncertainty in monetary policy decision-making. He presents historical examples of how economic thinking on monetary policymaking in the presence of uncertainty has evolved. Jefferson highlights the views of Milton Friedman, who emphasized the limited knowledge of policymakers and advocated for simple rules in monetary policy. He also discusses the Bayesian approach to uncertainty and the implications of ambiguity aversion. Jefferson emphasizes that the appropriate response to uncertainty depends on the specific circumstances. He discusses the lessons learned from the past, including the need for policymakers to act quickly or cautiously depending on the level of uncertainty, the limitations of rigid adherence to simple monetary policy rules, and the importance of humility in policymaking. He concludes by discussing the current economic situation, with a focus on inflation and economic growth.


Positivity Score: 75
Uncertainty Score: 80

Breeden - Modernising the trains and rails of UK payments

Amidst the prospect of significant technological change in payments, Sarah sets out how the Bank of England seeks to deliver trust and support innovation, both as a provider and as a regulator of retail and wholesale money. She discusses the first-order threats and opportunities facing central banks and the private sector.

In this speech, Sarah Breeden discusses the technological advancements in money and payment systems and how the Bank of England is looking to capture the benefits of these advances while ensuring safety. She highlights the potential of tokenization and distributed ledger technology in improving retail and wholesale payments, mentioning examples like Libra's proposal for cross-border payments and the potential for lower-cost micropayments. Breeden also emphasizes the importance of enhancing wholesale payments and settlement, particularly through innovative central bank infrastructure. Additionally, she discusses the exploration of retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) and encourages banks to take action in payments innovation.


Positivity: 85
Uncertainty: 70

Elderson - “Know thyself” – avoiding policy mistakes in light of the prevailing climate science

Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Delphi Economic Forum IX

In his keynote speech, Frank Elderson discusses the use of evidence from climate and nature science to inform the actions of public authorities, including central banks and supervisors. He highlights the urgency of addressing climate risks and the need for decisive action to prevent catastrophic levels of climate hazards. The speech emphasizes the economic and structural challenges associated with failing to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, including the need to upgrade and adapt existing capital stock. Elderson also emphasizes the importance of a sound banking system and well-developed capital markets to mitigate financial bottlenecks and ensure proper pricing of climate-related risks. He concludes by stressing the potential impact of climate risks on monetary policy transmission and the need for policymakers to prepare for future risks while striving towards the goals of the Paris Agreement.


Positivity: 70
Uncertainty: 80

Bowman - Risks and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy: Current and Past Considerations

In Michelle Bowman's speech, she discusses the challenges faced by monetary policymakers in accounting for uncertainties and risks when setting monetary policy. She emphasizes the importance of a forward-looking approach and the need for transparent communications. Bowman reviews the significant developments in the U.S. economy and monetary policy, particularly related to the post-financial crisis economy, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the rebound of inflation. She highlights the revisions in the Federal Reserve's statement on longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy and the use of various tools, such as asset purchases and forward guidance, to support the economy during the pandemic. Bowman also discusses the separate roles of monetary policy and financial stability, emphasizing the importance of appropriate regulation and supervision in addressing financial stability risks. She concludes with her own views on the near-term economic outlook, risks and uncertainties surrounding inflation, and considerations for future monetary policy decisions.


Positivity score: 70
Uncertainty score: 50